In the heart of the Himalayas, Bhutan a nation renowned for pioneering Gross National Happiness faces an escalating battle against climate-induced disasters. Yet, within this challenge lies a transformative opportunity to revolutionize its approach to weather, water, climate, and early warning services.
The urgency is clear. In August, a flash flood, intensified by upstream landslides, devastated 70 households in Thimphu. A year earlier, another flash flood claimed 23 lives and severely damaged the Yungichhu hydropower project construction site. In 2021, extreme rainfall affected 2,500 acres of farmland across 18 Dzongkhags, destroying 2,400 metric tons of crops. Bhutan’s vulnerability is undeniable: the country hosts 700 glaciers and 567 glacial lakes, with 17 classified as high-risk for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). With nearly half the workforce reliant on rainfed farming, the stakes could not be higher.
For the past ten years, Bhutan’s National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM), in collaboration with the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), has worked to strengthen its hydrometeorological capabilities. Originally a department under the Ministry of Economic Affairs, NCHM became an autonomous agency in 2016, spearheading efforts to deliver cutting-edge weather and climate services.
Progress has been significant. In 2018, the World Bank, with GFDRR and the South Asia Water Initiative, supported the launch of an advanced weather forecasting platform, cutting daily forecast preparation time by half. Aviation safety improved with enhanced weather systems, including a wind profiler and ceilometer at Paro International Airport.
In 2023, Bhutan’s National Hydromet Policy was formulated with financial and technical backing from the World Bank, Climate Investment Funds (CIF), and GFDRR. This policy paved the way for a $40 million Climate and Disaster Resilience Development Policy Financing initiative, aimed at bolstering early warning services for the Punatsangchu and Chamkhar-Mangde basins.
Bridging the Gaps
Despite progress, challenges remain. Bhutan’s weather monitoring network lacks reliable automatic stations and relies heavily on manual data collection, leading to forecasting gaps and difficulties in predicting extreme weather events. Many automatic weather stations suffer from communication failures, and higher elevations remain underrepresented in precipitation data. Flood warning systems cover only major rivers, leaving smaller tributaries unmonitored.
To address these issues, Bhutan and the World Bank have devised an ambitious ten-year roadmap. By 2034, NCHM aims to become a world-class hydrometeorological service provider through strategic investments and capacity-building initiatives.
The Road to 2034 Key priorities include:
- Expanding the observation network with new upper air stations, weather radar, and synoptic stations.
- Upgrading forecasting capabilities with ensemble prediction models and impact-based forecasting.
- Enhancing sector-specific services for agriculture and energy.
- Constructing a modern NCHM campus with administrative offices, technical labs, and weather observation facilities.
- Harnessing AI for Precision Forecasting
Innovation is at the core of Bhutan’s strategy. NCHM will integrate Artificial Intelligence (AI), including Deep Learning and Machine Learning, to refine forecasting techniques. Instead of focusing solely on local modeling, the agency will leverage global and regional data, enhancing accuracy in predicting extreme weather events.
Strengthening Expertise and Regional Collaboration
Capacity-building remains a priority. Professional training programs aligned with World Meteorological Organization standards will ensure NCHM staff meet global benchmarks. Additionally, Bhutan is pursuing ISO 9001:2015 certification for aviation services and implementing a comprehensive Quality Management System.
Regional cooperation will continue to play a vital role. The South Asia Hydromet Forum (SAHF), co-chaired by NCHM and convened by the World Bank, has enhanced knowledge-sharing and capacity-building among South Asian meteorological and hydrological services. Achievements include the SAHF Data Exchange, the Forecasters’ Forum, and collaboration with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for improved forecasting accuracy.
Investing in Bhutan’s Future
This initiative represents more than just a technological upgrade it’s an investment in Bhutan’s future. Modernized hydrometeorological services will save lives, safeguard livelihoods, and support sustainable economic growth. By reinforcing its resilience to climate-induced disasters, Bhutan continues its tradition of environmental stewardship while securing a more stable and prosperous future for its people.