A landmark study published in Science reveals that limiting global warming to 1.5°C as outlined in the Paris Agreement could preserve twice as much of the world’s glacier mass compared to current warming projections.
Conducted by an international team of researchers, the study examined more than 200,000 glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica using eight advanced glacier models. The findings arrive during the United Nations’ International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation and offer a stark warning about the irreversible impacts of unchecked climate change.
Despite a global average temperature increase of 1.2°C since pre-industrial times, the research shows that 39% of glaciers are already set to disappear even if temperatures stabilized today. This loss alone would add more than four inches to global sea levels. Moreover, for every additional 0.1°C of warming, an estimated 2% more glacier ice will vanish.
Under current global climate policies, the world is on track for a temperature rise of 2.7°C by 2100. This trajectory threatens to accelerate glacier retreat, leading to severe disruptions to freshwater supplies, rising seas, and destabilized ecosystems.
The study also underscores that glacier response to warming is delayed, meaning today’s melting reflects emissions from decades ago. Therefore, immediate and robust climate policy is critical to avoid further damage.
As part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project, the research highlights the pressing need for aggressive emission cuts and climate action to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Decisions made now will directly impact the world’s coastlines, water resources, and ecological balance for generations to come.