Europe’s ongoing heat and drought crisis has been significantly intensified by human induced climate change with rising temperatures making severe drought conditions far more likely across the continent, according to a new scientific assessment by the World Weather Attribution (WWA).
The study found that the summer of 2026 has been marked by exceptional heat, widespread rainfall deficits and prolonged drought stretching from Portugal to southern Finland. Combined with successive heatwaves, these conditions have triggered severe agricultural losses, unusually low river levels and extensive wildfires particularly in Spain and France, where more than 116,000 hectares and 42,000 hectares have burned, respectively.
Researchers from 13 countries assessed how climate change influenced the drought by analysing rainfall, soil moisture and potential evapotranspiration (PET), a measure of atmospheric demand for water driven by heat.
The analysis found that soil moisture drought in western Europe, covering the April June period, has become about five times more likely because of climate change. In eastern Europe, where drought conditions have persisted for six to 12 months, severe soil moisture deficits are now estimated to be around 11 times more likely than in a climate 1.4°C cooler.
Scientists said rising temperatures have sharply increased evaporation, meaning rainfall deficits that would not have caused severe drought in the past are now leading to agricultural and ecological drought.
The study also found that highly evaporative conditions in western Europe during April-June 2026 have become about 80 times more likely due to climate change, while similar conditions in eastern Europe have become around 40 times more likely.
The drought has placed growing pressure on agriculture, water supplies, energy production and transport. Crop losses have already been reported across several countries, including France’s lowest maize harvest in 50 years and the loss of more than one million hectares of maize in Romania. Low river levels have disrupted cargo transport, while water shortages have affected hydropower generation and prompted restrictions on non-essential water use in several countries.
Looking ahead, researchers warned that continued global warming is expected to further increase evaporative demand, making severe agricultural droughts more frequent even if rainfall patterns remain unchanged or improve in some regions.
The report calls for stronger drought preparedness across Europe, including improved water management, agricultural resilience, coordinated drought governance and long term climate adaptation strategies to reduce future risks.