India could see one final widespread spell of monsoon rain between September 12 and 21, with parts of Central, South, East and West India likely to receive showers and thunderstorms.
The expected revival could temporarily strengthen the weakening southwest monsoon and provide some relief to farmers ahead of the season withdrawal. September rainfall is particularly important for maintaining soil moisture and supporting crops during key growth stages.
Satellite observations from INSAT-3DS show reduced cloud cover over much of northwest India, while convective activity remains over eastern and southern parts of the country.
However, the rainfall surge may not substantially change the overall monsoon picture. India seasonal rainfall deficit is reported at around 14% below normal, following an uneven monsoon marked by prolonged dry periods and sharp regional differences.
The southwest monsoon normally begins retreating from northwest India before gradually withdrawing from the rest of the country. Weather models suggest that this withdrawal could accelerate after the expected September rainfall spell.
For rain fed agricultural regions the timing and distribution of the upcoming rains could be important. While the spell may offer short term relief, forecasters expect the broader monsoon circulation to continue weakening as the season approaches its end.