On Saturday, November 16, 2024, Super Typhoon Man-Yi struck the Philippines with sustained winds of 195 km/h, marking the sixth typhoon to impact the nation within 30 days. This relentless series of storms underscores the mounting challenges posed by extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change.
November 2024 shattered records for tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific. It witnessed four simultaneous named storms, a first since records began in 1951, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Typically, November averages just three named storms in the basin, with only one attaining super typhoon status.
The storm barrage began with Tropical Cyclone Trami in late October, causing over a dozen fatalities and a month’s worth of rain in northern Philippines. This was followed by Super Typhoon Kong-Rey, which struck Taiwan, claiming three lives. Typhoon Xinying, with winds of 240 km/h, forced the evacuation of 160,000 residents from Luzon. Subsequent typhoons, including Toraji and Super Typhoon Usagi, delivered a three-meter storm surge and torrential rains.
The human and economic toll has been staggering. Combined, Trami and Kong-Rey alone resulted in over 160 deaths, displaced 600,000 people, and affected nine million others. Early estimates of economic losses approach half a billion USD.
Climate Change and Typhoon Intensification
To assess the influence of climate change, scientists analyzed potential intensity (PI) a theoretical measure of maximum wind speed based on atmospheric and oceanic conditions and trends in landfalling major typhoons. Findings reveal that conditions conducive to intense typhoons have become significantly more probable due to global warming, primarily driven by fossil fuel combustion.
In 2024, the potential intensity for typhoons in the Philippine Sea was estimated to be seven times more likely due to climate change. Observations indicate that maximum typhoon intensity has increased by 14.5 km/h. Climate models suggest that further warming could amplify this trend, with another 7.2 km/h increase expected in a 2.6°C warmer world.
While the chance of three major typhoons making landfall in the Philippines in a single year is currently a once-in-15-years event, this frequency is 25% higher than pre-industrial levels. With ongoing warming, this probability is expected to rise further, increasing the risk of consecutive storms.
For Luzon, one of the Philippines’ wealthier regions, the repeated impact of typhoons in such a short span has highlighted vulnerabilities. Despite low poverty rates, urban sprawl, river silting, and deforestation exacerbate the risk of flooding. Entire communities have been left in a near-constant state of recovery, deepening their exposure to future storms.
The Philippine government has proposed legislation to enhance anticipatory disaster management through a “State of Imminent Disaster,” enabling preemptive resource allocation. While proactive, this approach faces extraordinary challenges in maintaining continuity amid escalating climate threats.
The extraordinary sequence of typhoons in the Philippines is part of a broader pattern of compounding climate events, including Sahelian floods and Atlantic hurricanes. These back-to-back disasters hinder recovery efforts, further stressing vulnerable communities.
Scientists warn that without immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, such extreme weather will become increasingly frequent and severe. The findings stress the urgent need for global cooperation to mitigate climate change while building resilience to its inevitable impacts.
The Philippines’ proactive steps in disaster risk management could serve as a model for other nations grappling with the accelerating threat of climate-induced disasters. However, the unprecedented nature of these events underscores the necessity of global efforts to reduce warming and its devastating consequences.