A groundbreaking study published in Nature Communications unveils new methods to forecast extreme weather events that modern records have never captured. Conducted by researchers from the Climate Adaptation Services Foundation, the University of Reading, and other global institutions, the study expands the understanding of climate extremes beyond the last century’s conventional weather records.
By tapping into nature archives such as tree rings and forgotten historical documents scientists have uncovered centuries of climate data that modern instruments missed. Lead author Timo Kelder emphasized the significance of this breakthrough, stating, “We’ve been limited by thinking extreme weather is only as bad as what we’ve measured. But looking back hundreds or even thousands of years reveals what’s truly possible.”
The research outlines four key approaches to predicting unprecedented weather: analyzing modern records, studying natural and historical archives, creating “what-if” scenarios based on past climate events, and using models to simulate physically possible extremes. For instance tree ring analysis in northwestern China reconstructed 850 years of drought patterns, exposing extreme events invisible in modern data. Similarly, historical records revealed that June 1846 in Durham, UK, was hotter than any modern June, and September 1774 in Oxford saw more rainfall than any month in the last 250 years.
This expanded perspective on extreme weather is crucial for preparedness. The study highlights three essential strategies for adaptation: enhancing early warning systems, upgrading infrastructure, and implementing social changes to reduce vulnerability.
Co-author Dorothy Heinrich from the University of Reading warned, “Unprecedented weather doesn’t just break records it breaks communities, infrastructure, and lives. But science can help us imagine the unimaginable, uncover these risks, and prepare. Our future depends on how quickly and thoroughly we adapt today.”